RMS enhances quake, cyclone models

RMS has updated its earthquake and cyclone models for Australia. The cyclone model includes the most recent market and meteorological data from Yasi in 2011, Marcia in 2015 and Debbie last year. It shows the number of at-risk dwellings has risen 15% between 2005 and 2016. The quake model reflects the latest scientific views on seismic hazards, event rates and ground motion data. The new models are among improvements to RMS’ catastrophe risk management software for Australia. “The Version 18 release provides the latest modelling insights to drive growth across the varied markets of the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Australia,” MD Australia and New Zealand Pierre Wiart said. Meanwhile, Risk Frontiers’ new earthquake model, incorporating Geoscience Australia’s latest seismic modelling changes, has prompted a general reduction in insurance loss estimates. Geoscience Australia’s new modelling counts half as many quakes above magnitude 4.5 or 5 on the east coast since 1900 compared with previous modelling. Risk Frontiers’ updated quake model incorporates a new active fault model, based on rare and large prehistoric events that do not show up in the short historical record of quakes in Australia. It also includes updates to exposure data and soil classification. Chief Geoscientist Paul Somerville says Sydney now shows a drastic reduction in estimated losses across every return period, while in Adelaide losses are lower for short return periods. Losses in Melbourne have slightly increased. 

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